Spatiotemporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Tourism Economic Vulnerability in China’s Major Tourist Cities

The evaluation and trend prediction of tourism economic vulnerability (TEV) in major tourist cities are necessary for formulating strategies scientifically promoting the sustainable development regional tourism. In this study, 58 China were taken as research object, an index system TEV was constructed from two aspects sensitivity adaptive capacity. On basis entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, obstacle diagnosis BP neural network study analyzed spatiotemporal patterns, factors, future trends 2004 to 2019. results show three key findings: (1) terms most China’s has been on rise Cities throughout coast Yangtze River Delta Pearl urban agglomeration high vulnerability, whereas low a scattered distribution northeast, central, western regions. (2) proportion international tourists out total tourists, output density, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions per unit area, smoke dust emission discharge wastewater area five obstacles affecting degree economy. (3) According 2021 2030, although many is increasing year by year, with levels occupy dominant position. Research can provide reference prevent crises occurring reasonably improve resilience system.